Express Entry drawings were rather predictable before the coronavirus epidemic.
Generally, drawings were held on Wednesdays every two weeks by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), however this was not an official regulation. Over 3,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residence and approximately 470 points in the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-offs would normally be included in each draw.
Back then, things were more stable because since the system’s launch in January 2015, Express Entry’s policy objectives had mostly stayed intact. Furthermore, the IRCC was getting near to meeting its target of processing 80% of applications for permanent residence through Express Entry in fewer than six months. This allowed it to continue regularly issuing fresh ITAs, providing applicants for Express Entry with additional assurance.
However, there has been far less regularity in Express Entry lotteries since the epidemic started. The frequency of draws, their nature, the quantity of ITAs, and the CRS cut-offs are no longer predictable.
For instance, in the lead-up to June this year, Express Entry drawings were held on a regular basis, roughly every two weeks. Draws started happening more regularly after IRCC implemented category-based selection. This was done in an effort to fulfill a wider range of policy objectives, including as alleviating labor shortages and increasing the number of Francophone immigrants welcomed.
IRCC conducted a total of 12 Express Entry drawings between June 27 and August 15, the period during which category-based selection was used. This was unusual since, according to historical patterns, the IRCC would normally hold between 4 and 8 draws over a similar amount of time. After delaying the issuance of Express Entry invitations for a little more than a month, the IRCC conducted nine additional drawings between September 19 and October 26.
Since October 26, there hasn’t been a draw, and the IRCC hasn’t given any explanation for the suspension. When the IRCC holds Express Entry drawings, however, may depend on a number of important criteria.
Plan for Immigration Levels
The Immigration Levels Plan, which the IRCC presents every year, establishes goals for the total number of admissions of permanent residents to Canada over the next three years.
These goals are further divided into categories, which include applicants for Express Entry.
For instance, the IRCC anticipates using Express Entry to bring in 110,770 immigrants in 2024 and 117,550 in 2025 and 2026. These numbers comprise the primary candidates who get Express Entry ITAs, along with the qualifying spouses and children they may include on their applications for permanent residence.
The IRCC must continuously assess the volume of applications for permanent residency that are pending in order to make sure it reaches these goals. It might not be required for the department to issue any more ITAs if there are enough applications for IRCC to accomplish its goals for the current and following year. In the event that the processing queue is overflowing, the IRCC will probably hold more draws or send out more ITAs.
When deciding on the number of ITAs to issue in terms of targets, IRCC considers both the current year and the upcoming year because it takes six months to process an Express Entry candidate’s final application. This means, for example, that ITAs issued in the latter half of 2023 will likely result in a permanent resident completing their landing in 2024.
IRCC policy objectives
The department must also consider the types of draws it should hold to fulfill its policy objectives.
The goal of Canada’s immigration minister is to boost the country’s economy. In order to do this, the minister gives directives encouraging immigrants who possess the necessary skills to fill labor shortages and boost the country’s GDP as soon as they arrive in Canada.
The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) invites to Express Entry are a crucial additional means of doing this.
There may occasionally be interruptions to Express Entry drawings as the IRCC considers its choices since selecting which individuals to invite requires time and careful thought. For instance, the minister must determine whether it makes more sense to perform program-specific drawings or invite candidates in a round of invites based on categories, or if candidates should be invited in an all-program draw that takes into account applicants from all three Express Entry administered programs.
In 2021, the International Refugee Committee (IRCC) aimed to bring in over 400,000 new permanent residents despite continued pandemic-related obstacles such travel bans and processing delays. Large Express Entry lotteries for Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates were one important method it tried to accomplish this aim, as the majority of them were already in Canada and it would be easier for IRCC to get them permanent residency. In order to address more general policy goals, the IRCC has conducted additional drawings since implementing category-based selection. These goals include:
- Encourage regional economic growth throughout the nation
- Invite applicants who possess a high degree of human capital and are positioned to fit in with the Canadian labor market.
- Enable smooth transitions from temporary to permanent residency
- build up the francophone populations outside of Quebec
- extending invitations to applicants with backgrounds in skilled trades, STEM, healthcare, and transportation
Modifications to the Express Entry profiles and the Comprehensive Ranking System
Express Entry drawings may also be impacted by sporadic modifications to the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) and other Express Entry profile adjustments.
The frequency of Express Entry drawings may also be affected, but this is not common. An alteration to the way the IRCC assigns CRS points to a particular characteristic may do so.
For instance, the IRCC raised the maximum amount of CRS points a candidate might be awarded for competence in French in 2020. When that occurs, the IRCC must finish a number of technological changes to guarantee that all current profiles have the most recent CRS scores.
Furthermore, as an additional illustration, the IRCC had to gradually replace NOC Skill Types with the new TEER system last year.
IT problems
IT problems, including bugs, are another element that may affect Express Entry.
The Express Entry profile builder is having problems, according to the most recent report from the IRCC. Candidates who have previously gotten an ITA might not be able to upload their final permanent residency application within the required 60 days due to the problem.
The IRCC tweeted on November 29 that candidates will have an extra 60 days to submit their applications if they are unable to upload their profiles as a result of the incident.
There might be IRCC issues with the rollout of new systems. For instance, IRCC Deputy Minister Christiane Fox brought up the issue of IT glitches that followed the implementation of category-based invitation selection rounds during a recent hearing of the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration.
When such issues arise, IRCC may elect to postpone drawings until it finds a solution.
Furthermore, an IT issue pertaining to upgrades to the National Occupation Classification (NOC) system prevented any Express Entry drawings from taking place between November 23, 2022, and January 11, 2023. Due to a bug, some candidates who weren’t qualified received ITAs.
IRCC staffing adjustments
A shift in personnel may also have an impact on Express Entry drawings. A new immigration minister, deputy minister, or other individuals in charge of Express Entry might be the source of this. Employees need some time to adjust to their new roles.
Following the release of a study by former Deputy Minister Neil Yeates that exposed departmental inefficiencies, the IRCC is undergoing a restructure. He suggested reorganizing the IRCC according to business lines in the study. Deputy Minister Fox stated in a Paul Wells interview that the department has already started implementing some of the proposals. This would unavoidably affect the department’s staffing levels.