As applicants for permanent residence (PR) are still being invited by Canada’s immigration system, March has seen another round of Express Entry lotteries.
A few patterns persisted in the draws from last month, which could help shed further light on how Express Entry might function all year long.
What effects does the makeup of the Express Entry applicant pool have on draw sizes and score cut-offs?
There are certain general patterns that may be seen, even though it might be challenging to comprehend how the composition of the Express Entry pool affects Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score cut-offs and draw sizes.
Score distribution and CRS thresholds
One of the variables that could affect the CRS score cut-offs of future drawings is the distribution of current scores within the Express Entry pool.
The IRCC may use the pool’s CRS scores to determine the size of each draw as well as the next suitable cut-off score for eligible candidates.
Even in these situations, CRS distribution within the pool may prove to be a contributing factor, as it is a crucial indicator of how well-adapted immigration candidates are within the pool, even though there may be other factors (such as labor market needs or special immigration policy) in the decision-making process.
This distribution is also impacted by category-based draws.
For candidates applying for Express Entry, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) holds category-based drawings in addition to regular CRS score-based draws. In order to address demographic and labor market demands in Canada, these draws particularly target those with a certain set of professional expertise or language proficiency (rather than CRS scores).
When candidates are invited into the Express Entry pool, these drawings, which go beyond CRS scores, nevertheless affect the distribution of scores in the pool. It may therefore be helpful to pay attention to these pulls when doing analysis.
Which Express Entry drawings took place in March?
Four Express Entry drawings were held in March.
Two of these drawings were general draws, inviting applicants who satisfied the required CRS cut-off from all three Express Entry-managed programs. The cut-off scores are still higher than they were a year ago, but this is normal in the early part of the year as general drawings usually have lower cut-offs as the year goes on.
The other two draws involved category-based choices for jobs in transportation and French language ability. This was the first draw for transportation jobs and the third for French language proficiency this year. With some of the lowest CRS score cut-offs in Express Entry history, the federal Express Entry system has allowed French-speaking individuals to apply for PR more quickly than Quebec’s immigration system thus far.
More draw information is included in the table below.
Draw date | Round type | Invitations issued | CRS score cut-off |
---|---|---|---|
12-03-24 | General | 2,850 | 525 |
13-03-24 | Transport occupations | 975 | 430 |
25-03-24 | General | 1,980 | 524 |
26-03-24 | French language proficiency | 1,500 | 388 |
Two of these drawings were general draws, inviting applicants who satisfied the required CRS cut-off from all three Express Entry-managed programs. The cut-off scores are still higher than they were a year ago, but this is normal in the early part of the year as general drawings usually have lower cut-offs as the year goes on.
The other two draws involved category-based choices for jobs in transportation and French language ability. This was the first draw for transportation jobs and the third for French language proficiency this year. With some of the lowest CRS score cut-offs in Express Entry history, the federal Express Entry system has allowed French-speaking individuals to apply for PR more quickly than Quebec’s immigration system thus far.
Score Ranges | Number of candidates |
---|---|
0-300 | 5,390 |
301-350 | 28,287 |
351-400 | 55,586 |
401-410 | 10,495 |
411-420 | 10,610 |
421-430 | 9,296 |
431-440 | 10,309 |
441-450 | 10,172 |
451-460 | 11,188 |
461-470 | 13,218 |
471-480 | 17,105 |
481-490 | 10,683 |
491-500 | 8,294 |
501-600 | 10,324 |
601-1200 | 987 |
For a better visual representation of the pool, these scores have also been shown below. As we can see, the range of 351-400 CRS points is where the majority of scores are found.
In the pool, what percentile is your score?
We may also ascertain a score’s percentile in relation to the other scores in the Express Entry candidate pool by determining the upper bound of each score range.
Percentiles illustrate how a particular score stacks up against the entire set of scores. A person’s percentile score, for instance, would be 52.07% if their CRS score was 420. This indicates that their score is higher than 52.07% of the pool’s total scores.
The full score percentile breakdown can be found below:
Score | Percentile (%) |
---|---|
300 | 2.54 |
350 | 15.89 |
400 | 42.12 |
410 | 47.07 |
420 | 52.07 |
430 | 56.46 |
440 | 61.32 |
450 | 66.12 |
460 | 71.40 |
470 | 77.64 |
480 | 85.71 |
490 | 90.75 |
500 | 94.66 |
600 | 99.53 |
1200 | 100 |